Is Keegan Swenson the greatest gravel cyclist of all time?

Keegan Swenson transitioned from mountain biking to dominate the current U.S.-based gravel cycling scene. After putting his 2022 Unbound error behind him, he claimed first place in a sprint finish this season. Moreover, he didn't just clinch a new Leadville course record; he shattered the previous one. But just how dominant is Swenson in the current landscape? To answer this, we put our internal models to work and revamped our gravel cyclist rating engine.

Building the Best Gravel Ranking System

For our live leaderboard, we initially employed a Bayesian statistical model to evaluate rider strength. You can read how this model fared in predicting future race results here.

Upon deeper analysis, we discovered that our Bayesian approach had some weaknesses. Specifically, it was overly sensitive to recent rider performances and exhibited high variability for new riders.

To address these issues, we've been experimenting with an Elo-based ranking system. We're pleased to announce the launch of a major new version of GravelRank, centered around the Elo scoring system.

So, Is Swenson the GOAT?

The current leaderboard stands as follows:

Keegan Swenson: 1230 (depicted in Yellow above)
Peter Stetina: 1212 (depicted in Red above)
Alexey Vermeulen: 1184
Russell Finsterwald: 1166
Adam Roberge: 1155

While the leaderboard shows a closely contested field, Swenson has pulled ahead quite remarkably.

Participation in High-Caliber Races

Before the Leadville event this year, Peter Stetina consistently held the top spot. His tenacity in high-rated events—15 in the last two years—earned him a robust position on the GravelRank leaderboard.

Swenson finally surpassed Stetina thanks to a string of nine 1st and 2nd place finishes, despite participating in six fewer high-caliber races than Stetina.

The scores are tight and can evolve rapidly, raising the question: Will Stetina or another competitor seize future podiums from Swenson?

The Greatest, For Now

Determining whether Swenson is the GOAT (Greatest of All Time) is premature at this point. However, his rapid rating trajectory suggests we might not have to wait long to find out.

Additional Details on the New Ranking System

Based on an Elo algorithm.
Riders can earn or lose points if they finish in the top 45 of one of our ranked races.
Inactive riders will not lose points, for the time being.
Riders will not appear on the leaderboard until they have two top 45 finishes.